Absurdity, Allegory and China

One of the fallouts from the new visa restrictions is that foreign tourism has dramatically fallen off just at the time when it should be on the rise. No surprise, really. The official fear of protests and social unrest, as well as the equally official and severe reaction to that fear, may end up causing more instability in the end. The IHT has a good report on the current state of tourism in Beijing, and it is grim given the year and the season. While hotels are not empty, the numbers are significantly lower than they normally are at this time of year. All the projected numbers for the Olympic boom and corresponding windfall may end up being nothing but smoke. I am not suggesting that it was smoke in the planning stage, since I assume that those numbers (500,000 visitors with buckets of cash) would have been generated with the help of the IOC (a dubious source, even on their best day) and past Olympic stats. But with the tougher visa limitations and the visibly ballooning security force, it is quite possible that the ratio of visitors to protectors may, in fact, be 1:1.

If the visions of divine profits begin to evaporate, many speculators may very well disappear, leaving nothing but fading promises and lots of unpaid bills. When bills go unpaid the ones who normally take the thrashing are small businesses and migrant workers, who may be run out of town before the Games with nothing but IOUs in their pockets. If this turns out to be the case it will come as no surprise that the worst fears may very well be realized. That would allow the officials with all their security concerns the escape clause they’re already rehearsing: See, we told you things might get bad.

Then, of course, there will need to be someone to blame. Any guesses? I’m sure that’s also part of the script.